“Oh Good” says he, looking at the forecast for the upcoming week, “it looks like we are going to get a bit of cold this year after all”. So far there have only been a handful of frosts and a few nights when the temperature dropped below freezing. It has stayed mild and wet and grey and dull, just a never-ending Autumn except all the plants have died back or gone to sleep. Well, not quite all. The grass has continued to grow, which (combined with the lack of frost, which impedes most of the different jobs we do) gave the gardening company I work for its busiest December ever. And then there’s this:
A dwarf daffodil flowering in a client’s garden on the 2nd of January. Snowdrops have been out too, and I’ve seen more daffs on their way. My boss said he had never seen them out so early. Then he came out with a classic line while discussing the unseasonable warmth: “I don’t know what’s causing it, but whatever it is it’s good for business”. Truly remarkable for someone who watches forecasts all the time and keeps track of weather trends year after year as one of the major parameters of his business to be unable or unwilling to connect this in his mind to the warnings of catastrophic global warming that scientists and environmentalists have been talking about for 40 years or more. I’ve heard him parrot denier talking points before so it’s not a lack of awareness, just a stupendous level of denial keeping his own personal observations in a compartment of his mind separate from what those crazy lefties and hippies are saying. I’ve not made any serious efforts to challenge him, only a few offhand comments here and there disguised with humour, and I didn’t respond to the above comment at the time because, honestly, I’ve grown tired of banging my head against that particular brick wall (always make it polite, just ask gentle steering questions, ask for clarification, don’t dismiss the argument or do anything to cause offense or manifest intractable disagreement and totally incompatible worldviews – remember he has power over you, blablabla). So the answer came while biking in to work one morning and unhealthily stewing over it in my mind: “Let’s see how good it is for business when we have to try and garden underwater.” Yes! Slam-dunk! I could tell the cows in the field next to the road were impressed…
Anyway, maybe there has been a change because he volunteered the information about 2014 being the hottest year ever recorded in the UK, sending a link to this article on the BBC by Roger Harrabin which surprised me by mentioning climate change four times, even providing a quote which connected it to ‘human influence’. The context, appropriately enough, was the discovery of a record amount of plants in flower on new year’s day in the British Isles:
Botanists have been stunned by the results of their annual hunt for plants in flower on New Year’s Day.
They say according to textbooks there should be between 20 and 30 species in flower. This year there were 368 in bloom.
It raises further questions about the effects of climate change during the UK’s warmest year on record.
“This is extraordinary,” said Tim Rich, who started the New Year’s plant hunt for the Botanical Society of Britain and Ireland.
“Fifty years ago people looking for plants in flower at the start of the year found 20 species. This year the total has amazed us – we are stunned.
“During the holiday I drove along the A34 south of Newbury and saw half a mile of gorse in flower when gorse is supposed to flower in April and May. It’s bizarre.”
“We are now in our fourth mild winter. Normally flowers get frosted off by Christmas but this year it hasn’t happened.”
He said 368 species in flower is an unprecedented 15% of the flowering plants in Britain and Ireland – an “amazing” total. The high count was partly due to the growth in the number of volunteers – but mostly due to climate change, he said.
Dr Rich said it was possible that plants in unseasonal flower might be badly hit if February brought very cold weather.
Usually the BBC turns cartwheels to avoid talking about extreme or unusual weather events in the context of climate change, as in this recent hour long documentary on the flooding of the Somerset levels last winter which didn’t even once bring up the topic (h/t scrabb on MLMB). The purpose of this is to shape public perception along denialist lines so that the important alarms aren’t raised and the fossil-fuel economy – and the social power structure sucking on its black teat – remain unchallenged and can continue to go about their business of turning this planet into Venus. The depressing thing is that it’s probably not even an active conspiracy from the BBC and other media organisations manipulating the debate in this way. They just have a collective understanding of “how we talk about this subject”, which does not include criticising corporations, governments, capitalism, industry or civilisation itself (of course the media fails to criticise itself too, being an integral part of the same systems), and always has to introduce an element of doubt, no matter how lacking in credibility the source. Anybody who fails to act according to these unspoken rules faces discipline, flack and ultimate dismissal if they do not conform.
Meanwhile, 2014 wasn’t just the hottest year on record for the UK, but for the whole world. Here’s another MET office chart with commentary from Joe Romm on the Climate Progress website (my emph):
It is not remarkable that we keep setting new records for global temperatures — 2005 and then 2010 and
likely2014. Humans are, after all, emitting record amounts of heat-trapping carbon pollution into the air, and carbon dioxide levels in the air are at levels not seen for millions of years, when the planet was far warmer and sea levels tens of feet higher. The figure above from the Met Office makes clear that humans continue to warm the planet.
“The provisional information for 2014 means that fourteen of the fifteen warmest years on record have all occurred in the 21st century,” said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. “There is no standstill in global warming.”
As Peter Stott, Head of Climate Attribution at the Met Office, explained: “Our research shows current global average temperatures are highly unlikely in a world without human influence on the climate.” While it has been on the cool side in parts of the United States, the Met Office reported that the United Kingdom is headed toward its hottest year on record. Stott noted that, “human influence has also made breaking the current UK temperature record about ten times more likely.”
This happened in an El Niño-neutral year (apparently it bumps up the average global temperature), and with that cycle due to kick in again next year 2015 seems likely to be even hotter. Romm’s conclusion:
The only way to stop setting new annual temperature records on an increasingly regular basis — until large parts of the planet are uninhabitable — is to sharply change the world’s carbon dioxide emissions path starting ASAP.
And we all know how likely that is in the absence of fundamental upheavals in the way our societies operate.
For my part I’m looking forward to putting on long johns and two pairs of gloves for the 40min commute on Monday morning. It feels wrong to be sweating from the outside heat at this time of year, and I don’t like the work schedule being just as busy as the summer months even if it does fatten my paycheck, which normally dwindles by several hundred pounds over December, January and February. It ain’t right, I tell thee. That energy usually goes towards other projects, including personal recuperation, taking stock, making plans, philosophising (on these pages and elsewhere), doing some reading, maybe playing a little music… Bloody climate change is going to rob me of my peace and quiet! I wonder if the plants and other animals are looking at it in the same way?
View from my window the other morning with work snowed off:
Be careful what you wish for! (I spent most of the day devouring The Fellowship of the Ring for the first time.)